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April 29, 2005
PETT funds not the answer to county's future
By PHILLIP GOMEZ The county, through its Capital Improvements Planning Committee, adopted in February certain land-use assumptions that project an additional population of 22,000 persons and 4,300 new jobs in the valley within 10 years. Paul Tischler, principal in the firm, noted that the county has relied on the Payments Equal To Taxes - funding the county gets from the government for the Yucca Mountain project - to pay for much of county government services. As a fixed annual payment, PETT is not going to be able to continue to take up as much of the slack in the county budget, as it has in the recent past (and present). "If you have another 10,000 people and you are relying on serving them from PETT, it is a losing proposition," Tischler told the county commissioners last week. Nye County has already faced deteriorating levels of services for existing residents over the past decade, a condition that will only get worse without more active government management of Pahrump's development. With overall increasing demands for county services from new growth in Pahrump, Nye County planners must now face the implications of that growth. Tischler identified the two basic questions as: "Do different types of residential and nonresidential land uses generate net revenues or net costs to the county or to the town? Do the adopted land-use assumptions create fiscal surpluses or deficits under different rates of growth?" By answering these questions through analysis of population growth and development, the consultant believes a strategic plan can be developed to encourage the right development patterns for generating positive fiscal impacts on county budgets and giving county commissioners the tools for making informed decisions about growth and capital improvements needs. Some of these improvements might be school construction, installing intersection signal lights and additional traffic lanes, beefing up fire and police protection and providing for more parks for organized recreational activities for children. Tischler plans to study the "cost of land use" as a projection of future residential and non-residential development. He secondarily plans to evaluate "the total fiscal impact of growth scenarios over time in which the pace of growth is modified." The objective is "to better understand the relationship between growth, different types of land use, demands for services, rates of growth and levels and costs of service." After the completion of the studies - and not included in the present contract - Tischler recommends addressing policy issues through another study, "a report on possible implementation mechanisms and revenue opportunities." Tischler calls this study "a toolbox approach" for the county planning department and Pahrump Regional Planning Commission. Also recommended is another "product": an economic development strategy, or an analysis of the types of incentives that might be offered to developers to attract certain types of nonresidential land uses, i.e., business and industry. TischlerBise has prepared more than 500 impact fees for regulation of community growth. It has conducted more than 400 fiscal impact evaluations around the country. The consulting firm leads the nation in both. Ten years out is the target date for Tischler's study. By 2015 Pahrump is expected to grow to 54,879, a 66-percent increase from today's population. Jobs are expected to grow by 4,294, a 73-percent increase in the local economy over the same period. But the dramatic rate of growth is complicated by the expected demands from citizens settling in Pahrump. Among the disadvantages of growth Tischler discerned in meetings with elected officials were: • Lack of infrastructure • Increased pressure on wages • Increased pressure on natural resources • Potential shortage of water • Increase in crime and the need for police protection • Loss of rural character • More rules and regulations • More congestion • More demands for change from newer residents • Increased demands for levels of service in both quantity and quality Among the advantages of growth: • Larger tax base from which to draw revenue • Greater level of services • Greater level of economic and employment opportunities • More social and political opportunities • Greater political clout • Greater retail and shopping opportunities • Greater variety of available amenities • Increased range of housing possibilities Tischler had some pessimistic news for elected officials at the town and county levels: "Based on our experience and given the current revenue structure of the county, it is highly likely that many types of new development will generate fiscal deficits to the county." The effects of growth on the Nye County School District are especially far-reaching. "It is highly likely that all types of non-residential land uses may generate net revenues to the school district while many residential land uses may generate net deficits," he writes. "It is possible that the effects of a high rate of growth might be so overwhelming that the school system will be unable to keep pace, both from a fiscal and design and construction perspective. The effect of new housing unit characteristics, such as sale prices and student yields, are also important for the school district and county to understand." The land-use study is expected to answer the major question of whether each of 10 different types of land use would generate a surplus or a deficit. "This knowledge would allow decision makers to better understand the magnitude of the deficit or surplus by type of land use, and therefore, what type of land uses should be focused upon to help offset the negative results," says Tischler. Prototypical land-use categories for residential and non-residential uses - ranging from single-family, large-lot houses to manufactured houses and townhouses, from warehouse to retail to industrial - are to be included in the 10 categories of land use studied. Three different scenarios or paces of development will be looked at in the study: slow growth; a base, or average, growth rate; and high growth. Slow growth would generate a population total of 44,000 people by 2015; base growth would generate 55,000 people; high growth would generate a population of 66,000, for a net increase of 11,000, 22,000 and 33,000, people respectively. The different rates of growth could lead to different rates of revenue collection. "Faster growth could lead to more revenue, but the county might not be able to provide services fast enough. On the other hand, slow growth could force new capital facilities to open and be temporarily oversized, due to the slower pace of development," Tischler writes. The cost of land-use study will also answer a long-standing question on fiscal equity in the county: whether the average resident in Pahrump is a net receiver or net donor to Nye County government. "To several participants the question is basically whether the northern part of the county is subsidizing the south," Tischler says. |
